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A 33rd Rescue Squadron HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter takes off in support of Remote Island Disaster Exercise 2021 from Ukibaru Island, Japan, Nov. 2, 2021. The primary mission of the HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter is to conduct day or night personnel recovery operations in hostile environments to recover isolated personnel. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Stephen Pulter)
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The knowledge on limits of adaptation to the combined effects of climate change and desertification is insufficient. However, the potential for residual risks and maladaptive outcomes is high (high confidence). Empirical evidence on the limits to adaptation in dryland areas is limited. Potential limits to adaptation include losses of land productivity due to irreversible forms of desertification. Residual risks can emerge from the inability of SLM measures to fully compensate for yield losses due to climate change impacts. They also arise from foregone reductions in ecosystem services due to soil fertility loss even when applying SLM measures could revert land to initial productivity after some time. Some activities favouring agricultural intensification in dryland areas can become maladaptive due to their negative impacts on the environment (medium confidence) Even when solutions are available, social, economic and institutional constraints could pose barriers to their implementation (medium confidence). 3.6.4
Despite these environmental, socio-economic and institutional constraints, dryland populations have historically demonstrated remarkable resilience, ingenuity and innovations, distilled into ILK to cope with high climatic variability and sustain livelihoods (Safriel and Adeel 200896; Davis 201697; Davies 201798) (Sections 3.6.1 and 3.6.2, and Cross-Chapter Box 13 in Chapter 7). For example, across the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, informal community by-laws were successfully used for regulating grazing, collection and cutting of herbs and wood, and which limited rangeland degradation (Gari 200699; Hussein 2011100). Pastoralists in Mongolia developed indigenous classifications of pasture resources which facilitated ecologically optimal grazing practices (Fernandez-Gimenez 2000101) (Section 3.6.2). Currently, however, indigenous and local knowledge and practices are increasingly lost or can no longer cope with growing demands for land-based resources (Dominguez 2014102; Fernández-Giménez and Fillat Estaque 2012103; Hussein 2011104; Kodirekkala 2017105; Moreno-Calles et al. 2012106) (Section 3.4.2). Unsustainable land management is increasing the risks from droughts, floods and dust storms (Sections 3.4.2 and 3.5). Policy actions promoting the adoption of SLM practices in dryland areas, based on both indigenous and local knowledge and modern science, and expanding alternative livelihood opportunities outside agriculture can contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation, addressing desertification, with co-benefits for poverty eradication and food security (high confidence) (Cowie et al. 2018107; Liniger et al. 2017108; Safriel and Adeel 2008109; Stafford-Smith et al. 2017110).
Payment for ecosystem services (PES) provides incentives for land restoration and SLM (medium confidence) (Lambin et al. 20141328; Li et al. 2018; Reed et al. 20151329; Schiappacasse et al. 20121330). Several studies illustrate that the social costs of desertification are larger than its private cost (Costanza et al. 20141331; Nkonya et al. 2016a1332). Therefore, although SLM can generate public goods in the form of provisioning ecosystem services, individual land custodians underinvest in SLM as they are unable to reap these benefits fully. Payment for ecosystem services provides a mechanism through which some of these benefits can be transferred to land users, thereby stimulating further investment in SLM. The effectiveness of PES schemes depends on land tenure security and appropriate design, taking into account specific local conditions (Börner et al. 20171333). However, PES has not worked well in countries with fragile institutions (Karsenty and Ongolo 20121334). Equity and justice in distributing the payments for ecosystem services were found to be key for the success of the PES programmes in Yunnan, China (He and Sikor 2015). Yet, when reviewing the performance of PES programmes in the tropics, Calvet-Mir et al. (2015), found that they are generally effective in terms of environmental outcomes, despite being sometimes unfair in terms of payment distribution. It is suggested that the implementation of PES will be improved through decentralised approaches giving local communities a larger role in the decision-making process (He and Lang 2015).
Chapter 16 in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Klein et al. 20151799) discusses the existence of soft and hard limits to adaptation, highlighting that values and perspectives of involved agents are relevant to identify limits (Sections 4.8.5.1 and 7.4.9). In that sense, adaptation limits vary from place to place and are difficult to generalise (Barnett et al. 20151486; Dow et al. 20131800; Klein et al. 20151801). Currently, there is a lack of knowledge on adaptation limits and potential maladaptation to combined effects of climate change and desertification (see Section 4.8.6 for discussion on resilience, thresholds, and irreversible land degradation, also relevant for desertification). However, the potential for residual risks (those risks which remain after adaptation efforts were taken, irrespective of whether they are tolerable or not, tolerability being a subjective concept) and maladaptive outcomes is high (high confidence). Some examples of residual risks are illustrated below in this section. Although SLM measures can help lessen the effects of droughts, they cannot fully prevent water stress in crops and resulting lower yields (Eekhout and de Vente 20191487). Moreover, although in many cases SLM measures can help reduce and reverse desertification, there would still be short-term losses in land productivity. Irreversible forms of land degradation (for example, loss of topsoil, severe gully erosion) can lead to the complete loss of land productivity. Even when solutions are available, their costs could be prohibitive, presenting the limits to adaptation (Dixon et al. 20131488). If warming in dryland areas surpasses human thermal physiological thresholds (Klein et al. 2015; Waha et al. 20131489), adaptation could eventually fail (Kamali et al. 20181490). Catastrophic shifts in ecosystem functions and services (for example coastal erosion (Chen et al. 2015; Schneider and Kéfi 20161491) (Section 4.9.8)) and economic factors can also result in adaptation failure (Evans et al. 2015). Despite the availability of numerous options that contribute to combating desertification, climate change adaptation and mitigation, there are also chances of maladaptive actions (medium confidence) (see Glossary). Some activities favouring agricultural intensification in dryland areas can become maladaptive due to their negative impacts on the environment (medium confidence). Agricultural expansion to meet food demands can come through deforestation and consequent diminution of carbon sinks (Godfray and Garnett 20141492; Stringer et al. 20121493). Agricultural insurance programmes encouraging higher agricultural productivity and measures for agricultural intensification can result in detrimental environmental outcomes in some settings (Guodaar et al. 20191494; Müller et al. 20171495) (Table 6.12). Development of more drought-tolerant crop varieties is considered as a strategy for adaptation to shortening rainy seasons, but this can also lead to a loss of local varieties (Al Hamndou and Requier-Desjardins 20081496). Livelihood diversification to collecting and selling firewood and charcoal production can exacerbate deforestation (Antwi-Agyei et al. 20181497). Avoiding maladaptive outcomes can often contribute both to reducing the risks from climate change and combating desertification (Antwi-Agyei et al. 20181498). Avoiding, reducing and reversing desertification would enhance soil fertility, increase carbon storage in soils and biomass, thus reducing carbon emissions from soils to the atmosphere (Section 3.7.2 and Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1). In specific locations, there may be barriers for some of these activities. For example, afforestation and reforestation programmes can contribute to reducing sand storms and increasing carbon sinks in dryland regions (Chu et al. 2019) (Sections 3.6.1 and 3.7.2). However, implementing agroforestry measures in arid locations can be constrained by lack of water (Apuri et al. 20181499), leading to a trade-off between soil carbon sequestration and other water uses (Cao et al. 2018). Thus, even when solutions are available, social, economic and institutional constraints could post barriers to their implementation (medium confidence).
Recent reviews of the governance and implementation of IWM within the basin recognise that an integrated approach is needed and that a robust institutional, legal, political, operational, technical and support environment is crucial (Alba et al. 20161771; Gbetibouo et al. 20101773; Machethe et al. 20041774; Spaliviero et al. 20111775; van der Zaag and Savenije 19991776). Within the scope of emerging lessons, two principal ones emerge. The first is capacity and resource constraints at most levels. Limited capacity within Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM) and national water management authorities constrains the implementation of IWM planning processes (Kahinda et al. 20161777; Spaliviero et al. 20111778). Whereas strategy development is often relatively well-funded and resourced through donor funding, long-term implementation is often limited due to competing priorities. The second is adequate representation of all parties in the process in order to address existing inequalities and ensure full integration of water management. For example, within Mozambique, significant strides have been made towards the decentralisation of river basin governance and IWM. Despite good progress, Alba et al. (2016) found that the newly implemented system may enforce existing inequalities as not all stakeholders, particularly smallholder farmers, are adequately represented in emerging water management structures and are often inhibited by financial and institutional constraints. Recognising economic and socio-political inequalities, and explicitly considering them to ensure the representation of all participants, can increase the chances of successful IWM implementation.
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